There will also be a project to deepen the navigation
channels and raise the maximum operating level of Gatun Lake
to make sure everything stays operational. Together, the existing
canal, and the proposed expansion will, theoretically double
the Panama Canals capacity.
The reasoning behind this project is that, the
predicted average annual growth rate, of cargo passing through
the Canal, is 3%. This means that by the year 2025, the tonnage
of cargo traveling through, will be double of that, which
passed through in 2005. Therefore by making the Canal able
to accommodate larger vessels, efficiency will be improved.
There will be fewer transits because each one will carry more
cargo, therefore using less water in the process.
Not everyone, however, is so sure that this
project is a wise move. Fernando Manfredo, the former Canal
administrator, has stated his disapproval, saying that it
is irresponsible to base an entire nations financial future,
on predictions of canal usage increase over a generation.
Manfredo does not believe that the growth of Canal usage will
continue as it has. This is because the majority of the growth
is due to US imports from China. It has become increasingly
recognized in both the US and China, that the current imbalance
in trade between the two nations is unsustainable. However
it is not clear whether this imbalance will rectify itself
through the slowed increase of China to US exports, or through
intellectual property being sent from the US to China. Whatever
the future, there are many people, who feel that the continued
growth is far from certain, nothing more than a highly optimistic
prediction.
Some people see the valid points made by this
argument, but there are many more points to consider, such
as the estimate that by 2011, around 37% of the worlds containership
fleet will not fit through the existing canal, due an increased
investment in larger more efficient ships. This means without
the increase in capacity, more and more ships will have no
choice but to use the competition to the Panama Canal, such
as the transpacific-intermodal route and the Suez Canal route.
Therefore there are those who feel that, even if the predicted
growth does not materialize, the expansion will be needed
to keep in competition for those 37%.
\With the views of these people being taken
into account, some 76.8 % of the Panamanian voting population
chose to vote for the construction, scheduled to finish in
2014, to begin.
The estimated costs of this project,
including all administrative, design and construction, as
well as contingency plans is $5.25 Billion (USD). With predictions
in place that the expansion, will generate enough extra revenue
to pay off the costs within 10 years of completion, if all
estimates are to materialize as stated.
It is also predicted to create around 40,000 new jobs during
the construction process, which can only be seen as good news
for the country of Panama. However, even more emphasis has
been made about the impact on medium and long term employment
that will be brought about through economic growth, caused
by the increase in economic activities, due to the expanded
canal capacity, which again, can only mean one thing, Good
news for Panama. |